Third Parties in Missouri: An Analysis

With less than 48 hours to Election Day, I will use this post to compare and contrast the three main third parties in Missouri.

Nationwide, the Libertarian, Constitution, and Green parties are the largest political parties after the Republican and Democratic parties. Over the past few weeks, I discussed the status of these parties’ affiliates in the state of Missouri. The Missouri Secretary of State’s Web site shows only the Constitution, Democratic, Libertarian and Republican parties as appearing on this fall’s ballot. All other candidates are running either independent or write-in campaigns, unless they are in a nonpartisan race.

If any third party wins an election in Missouri this year, it would be the Libertarian Party. The Libertarian Party has appeared on the ballot in every election in Missouri since 1992. According to the national Libertarian Party’s Web site, three Libertarians hold elective office in Missouri: two members of the Springfield City Council and the mayor of Macks Creek. Name recognition is therefore less of a problem for the Libertarians than for other third parties.

The Constitution Party is in a very different position than the Libertarian Party. Party chair Donna Ivanovich made no effort to hide the fact that the party collapsed early this decade due to poor organization. Lack of prior success will be a major hurdle. Although the parties have a similar number of candidates running, the Constitution Party has a greater concentration of candidates running for the Missouri House of Representatives. Statistically speaking, it has a greater chance of winning a House seat, but the Libertarian Party, with its distribution of candidates among county, state and national races, is in a better position across the board.

The Progressive Party, despite its status as a Green Party affiliate, will not be a major factor in this election or the near future. Not appearing on the ballot will be a major handicap for its sole candidate, Nicholas Ladendorf. A lack of success in this election will likely hamper the party’s efforts to return to the ballot in 2012.

In terms of policy, both the Constitution and Libertarian parties have demonstrated appeal to voters fed up with government spending. Both parties advocate small government and a retreat from major international commitments. The parties differ in social policy, most clearly on abortion. The Libertarian Party is solidly pro-choice, whereas the Constitution Party is solidly pro-life. Several Constitutionist candidates emphasized their stance on this issue. This could determine how well the parties do in different sections of the state. The Libertarian Party will likely draw its largest percentages in St. Louis, Kansas City, and Boone County, all traditionally liberal sections of Missouri. The Constitution Party will probably perform strongest in more conservative areas.

If the Progressive Party was able to campaign on the scale of the Libertarian and Constitution parties this year, it would likely gain the most votes in very liberal pockets, such as St. Louis, Kansas City, or Columbia. Although Ladendorf identifies himself as a centrist, the party’s positions on several issues would dampen its appeal to most Missourians.

Third parties’ biggest role in this election will probably be as spoilers. While it is entirely possible a third-party candidate may win a two-way race, most third party candidates are running against both a Republican and a Democratic opponent. The Libertarian and Constitution parties both claim to have drawn in lifelong members of both major parties, meaning they could siphon votes away from either a Republican or a Democratic opponent. Given the Constitution Party’s more conservative stance, it is more likely to draw away Republican than Democratic votes. The Libertarian Party’s views make it a potential threat to either major party.